AI Browser Market Intelligence - 07/22/2025
Why We're Tracking This
As an agency, we've built our reputation on transparency. Not the performative kind. Just real talk about what's actually happening.
When we said we were going all in on the retrieval layer, we meant it. We're already tracking AI referral traffic from chatbot interfaces, helping businesses try to understand where their mystery traffic is coming from.
Now we're taking it further. Two weeks in, we're documenting the emergence of agentic browsers from the very beginning. Will this become the next big shift in how people browse the web? Will it crash and burn under the gated and temporary $200/month pricing?
We honestly don't know yet.
That's exactly why we're tracking it. The story is still being written. We're here to document what unfolds, week by week.
Let's see where this goes.
Reddit AMA Reveals Comet's True Ambition
Perplexity's Aravind Srinivas and Comet product lead Leonid Persiantsev hosted a surprisingly candid Reddit AMA — and quietly outlined Comet's long game: not just a browser, but a true assistant-layer interface for the web.
- Comet isn't a layer. It's an end-to-end agent that reads your tabs, manages your inbox, shops, schedules, summarizes, and acts.
- Privacy isn't performative. All browsing data stays local by default. Context is only shared when scoped by the user.
- Google can't pivot. Their business model depends on you clicking ads. Comet skips clicks entirely.
North American Market Size: ~25,000 users (unchanged) - severe constraints remain in place
Growth Barriers: Perplexity $200/month pricing, Dia Mac-only access, Opera Neon waitlist-only
Market Potential: 10x-100x expansion possible if pricing/platform constraints removed
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$18B Valuation - Perplexity raised funding at $18B valuation (up from $14B in March); $200/month pricing unchanged -
🌐
Skills Gallery - Dia launched official Skills Gallery with automation shortcuts; Mac M1+ constraint persists
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Mobile Talks - Perplexity in discussions with phone manufacturers for Comet pre-installation
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Still Waitlisted - Opera Neon remains waitlist-only; subscription model confirmed but no pricing disclosed
Market Penetration: ~0.007% of North American internet users (~25,000 total estimated users)
Critical Intelligence Gaps
- No companies disclose exact user counts or subscription breakdowns
- Geographic distribution patterns unknown
- Estimates require 30-50% uncertainty ranges due to indirect indicators
- Development timelines and feature roadmaps confidential
- OpenAI browser launch timeline described only as "coming weeks"
- Strategic plans remain undisclosed by all major players
- Revenue attribution between browser and core services unknown
- Market valuations estimated from pricing models and user projections
- Enterprise vs. consumer adoption split undisclosed
- User switching patterns and retention rates unavailable
- Opera Neon waitlist size reported as "incredible" but no quantitative data
- Impact assessment of constraint removal requires scenario modeling
Building Toward Market Maturation
Perplexity's $18B valuation (+28% from March) signals strong investor confidence. Strategic discussions with mobile manufacturers for pre-installation distribution.
OpenAI browser launch described as "coming weeks." Google's Project Mariner could commoditize agentic features in Chrome's 68% market share.
Early adopters report significant productivity improvements. Persistent criticism of $200/month barrier and Mac-only limitations remain primary adoption constraints.
Dia Skills Gallery launch demonstrates ecosystem building. Browser Company hiring compiler engineers suggests continued Mac platform optimization over expansion.
🚨 Critical Risk (Next 7 Days):
- OpenAI browser launch - Timeline: "coming weeks" could reshape entire market
- Perplexity pricing changes - Any deviation from $200/month could trigger 10x expansion
- Dia Windows announcement - Platform expansion could double addressable market
⚠️ Medium-Term Catalysts (30 Days):
- Opera Neon launch - Public availability could add 5K-15K users
- Google Project Mariner - Chrome AI integration timeline monitoring
- Mobile pre-installation deals - Perplexity manufacturer partnerships
📊 Market Maturation Signals:
- First enterprise adoption announcements and ROI case studies
- User retention data becoming available (30-60 day patterns)
- Competitive feature parity across platforms
- Third-party usage analytics and benchmarking tools
🎯 Constraint Removal Scenarios:
- Pricing barrier removal: $20/month → 10x growth, free tier → 50-100x growth
- Platform expansion: Dia Windows launch → immediate 2x addressable market
- Availability opening: Opera Neon public launch bypasses waitlist constraints
Constraint-Focused Analysis Methodology
Sources Verified (July 14-21, 2025):
- Bloomberg: Perplexity $18B valuation funding round
- Reuters: Mobile manufacturer pre-installation discussions
- TechCrunch: Dia Skills Gallery launch, Opera Neon feature showcase
- Company pricing pages and official product documentation
- Subscription tier adoption patterns from comparable AI services
- Hardware constraint analysis (Mac M1+ market penetration)
- Geographic distribution modeling (40% North American assumption)
- Beta participation rates from similar browser products
- No company discloses exact user counts or revenue attribution
- Competitive development timelines remain confidential
- 30-50% uncertainty ranges required for all user estimates
- Opera Neon waitlist size described only as "incredible"
Analytical Focus Areas:
Primary Source Documentation
Previous Report Updates:
Second report in the series (July 21, 2025) - No corrections were requested or shown in the updated data
Contact Information:
Report Schedule:
View Previous Report:
AI Browser Market Intelligence - 07/15/2025
Questions, feedback, or have a data source we should know about? Drop us a line — aloha@platelunchcollective.com