AI Browser Market Intelligence - 07/29/2025
Why We're Tracking This
As an agency, we've built our reputation on transparency. Not the performative kind. Just real talk about what's actually happening.
When we said we were going all in on the retrieval layer, we meant it. We're already tracking AI referral traffic from chatbot interfaces, helping businesses try to understand where their mystery traffic is coming from.
Now we're taking it further. Several weeks in, we're documenting the emergence of agentic browsers from the very beginning. Will this become the next big shift in how people browse the web? Will it crash and burn under the gated $200/month pricing that shows no signs of changing?
We honestly don't know yet.
That's exactly why we're tracking it. The story is still being written. We're here to document what unfolds, week by week.
Let's see where this goes.
Agentic Browser Market Remains Constrained
Week of July 30, 2025: No critical changes detected across all three major agentic browsers. The North American market remains stable at ~25,000-30,000 users, with existing barriers still preventing mass adoption.
- Perplexity Comet: Still requires $200/month subscription with no pricing changes announced
- Dia Browser: Remains Mac-only with no Windows development progress detected
- Opera Neon: Still in invite-only waitlist phase with zero active users
North American Market Size: ~25,000-30,000 users (unchanged) - severe constraints remain in place
Growth Barriers: Perplexity $200/month pricing, Dia Mac-only access, Opera Neon waitlist-only
Market Potential: 10x-100x expansion possible if pricing/platform constraints removed
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No Price Change - Comet maintains $200/month requirement; Sidekick users received invites via shutdown popup -
🖥️
Mac Only - Dia Browser confirmed "Windows users are out of luck" for beta; no cross-platform progress
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🛡️
Copilot Mode - Microsoft launched AI-based Copilot Mode in Edge browser (July 28)
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⏳
Still Waitlisted - Opera Neon remains invite-only with "truly surreal" marketing but no launch timeline
Market Penetration: Less than 0.01% of North American internet users (~25,000-30,000 total estimated users)
Critical Intelligence Gaps
- Direct user data unavailable from companies - constraint-based methodology required
- Arc browser North American user base and beta participation rates unknown
- Perplexity Max subscriber subset utilizing browser functionality unclear
- Dia Windows development progress - no timeline or commitment detected
- Opera Neon launch readiness and public availability timeline unknown
- OpenAI browser development status remains rumored without confirmation
- Perplexity "eventually make it free" timeline completely unspecified
- Opera Neon subscription model confirmed but pricing undisclosed
- Revenue attribution between browser access and core AI services
- User adoption patterns within knowledge work sectors unmeasured
- Enterprise vs consumer split for current user base unknown
- Incumbent response effectiveness (Edge Copilot, Chrome AI features) on adoption rates
Market Status Quo Maintained
Microsoft launched Copilot Mode in Edge (July 28). Google added AI-powered store summaries to Chrome. Traditional browsers integrating AI capabilities to defend market share.
Chrome maintains 90.15% U.S. market share vs 0.29% for AI browsers. Expert assessment: "Hard time seeing any new browser having material impact on Google's dominance."
Industry analysis confirms current products "gear toward power users, not mass market." Trust issues and constraint concerns limit enterprise adoption beyond early adopters.
Opera Neon's continued waitlist status despite "truly surreal" marketing represents significant missed opportunity for mass-market accessible agentic browsing.
🚨 High Priority Triggers (10-15% probability next 4 weeks):
- Perplexity Comet pricing changes - Any reduction from $200/month could trigger 10x-100x expansion
- Dia Browser Windows launch - Could immediately triple/quadruple addressable market
- Opera Neon public launch - Could create entirely new mass-market segment
⚠️ Medium Priority (30-40% probability next 3 months):
- OpenAI browser development - Rumored status, 500M+ weekly users potential
- Enterprise adoption trends - Gradual growth in knowledge work sectors
- Microsoft Edge Copilot impact - Defensive AI integration effects
📊 Long-Term Outlook (6-12 months):
- Market consolidation around 2-3 major players likely
- Professional/knowledge worker segments may achieve substantial growth
- Mass-market adoption dependent on addressing current constraints
🎯 Market Expansion Scenarios:
- Barrier removal impact: Current 25K-30K users → 100K-500K potential in 3 months
- Status quo continuation: Gradual organic growth within existing constraints
- Incumbent disruption: Traditional browsers with AI features may slow adoption
Constraint-Focused Analysis Methodology
Sources Verified (July 23-30, 2025):
- Reuters: Microsoft Copilot Mode launch in Edge browser
- TechCrunch: Google Chrome AI-powered store summaries
- Mashable: Comprehensive AI browser comparison and testing
- VentureBeat: Industry expert analysis and market assessment
- Platform availability analysis (Mac M1+ constraint, Windows limitations)
- Pricing barrier assessment ($200/month impact on addressable market)
- Access mechanism evaluation (invite-only vs. subscription-based)
- Market penetration calculations based on known constraints
- No direct user data from companies - constraint-based methodology required
- Perplexity "eventually make it free" timeline completely unspecified
- Dia Windows development progress - no timeline detected
- Opera Neon launch readiness and pricing details undisclosed
Analytical Focus Areas:
Primary Source Documentation
Report Classification:
Contact Information:
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View Previous Report:
AI Browser Market Intelligence - 07/22/2025
AI Browser Market Intelligence - 07/15/2025
Questions, feedback, or have a data source we should know about? Drop us a line — aloha@platelunchcollective.com