When Half of Everyone Stopped Drinking

I wrote about payday cycles a while back. How most businesses market like everyone has the same amount of money all month long, when the reality is people spend when they get paid and mostly don't when they don't. BoohooMAN figured this out, mapped their ad spend to payday, and return jumped 80%. Obvious in hindsight. People with money buy things.

Bar and restaurant marketing does something similar, except the assumption isn't about timing. It's about behavior. Happy hours. Clinking-glass posts. The mocktail at the bottom of the menu described like an apology.

Bars are like calendars—built for a rhythm people no longer live by.

54% of Americans drink alcohol now. Gallup just published the number. Lowest they've measured in ninety years. Three years ago it was 62%. Among people under 35, half drink. Just half.

The alcohol industry has noticed. They'd be blind not to. The largest companies lost $830 billion in market value since 2021. Craft breweries closed faster than new ones opened last year for the first time since 2005. Texas restaurant operators reported declining alcohol sales at a rate of 40% last quarter. The numbers are everywhere.

But walk into most bars and the marketing looks identical to 2019. Instagram celebrates drinking. Email blasts promote drink specials. The menu architecture assumes alcohol is the main event and everything else is supporting cast. One mocktail, if you're lucky. Probably called a mocktail. Probably $12. Probably not very good.

Meanwhile Athletic Brewing is a top-twenty U.S. brewery. They don't make alcoholic beer. They make money.

Why Americans Are Drinking Less

The numbers show the decline. The question is what's driving it. Multiple things, turns out. Not one cause you can point to and address. A convergence.

Health concerns sit at the top. 53% of Americans now think moderate drinking is unhealthy. That number was 28% in 2018. Seven years to flip the consensus.

Among young adults it's even more pronounced. Two-thirds think moderate drinking harms health. 34% of Gen Z non-drinkers cite health and mental health specifically. They're not worried about cirrhosis in forty years. They're worried about anxiety tomorrow. 46% of Gen Z report diagnosed anxiety, depression, or ADHD. "Hang-xiety" has a name now.

Money is part of this too, more than most industry analysis admits. 30% of young people choose non-alcoholic drinks because they're cheaper. Not because they're health-conscious or sober-curious. Because they're broke. Gen Z came of age during financial crisis, pandemic, inflation. They watch housing prices and student debt and decide a $15 cocktail isn't worth it when a $6 mocktail tastes fine. Or they skip the bar entirely and save the money.

The BBC talked to Gen Zers about this. "The way Gen Zers budget and save is so different from previous generations, because they can't just bust into the housing market." Every expense gets scrutinized differently when you assume you probably won't buy a house.

Then there's the medication factor, which is newer and weirder. GLP-1 drugs: Ozempic, Wegovy—the weight-loss medications everyone's talking about. They appear to reduce alcohol consumption as a side effect. About 50% of patients who drank before starting these medications report drinking less after. Not because they decided to drink less. Because they don't want to anymore.

A friend started Wegovy. Three weeks in, wine just stopped tasting good. Same bottle, same meal, different brain chemistry.

A JAMA Psychiatry study found GLP-1 drugs significantly reduced heavy drinking and cravings in adults with alcohol use disorder. Yale Medicine research shows the drugs appear to affect alcohol metabolism and reward pathways. Some projections suggest more than half of U.S. adults might eventually take them.

The rest is messier. Culture. 46% of Gen Z non-drinkers say they're simply not interested in drinking. Not for health reasons. Not for money reasons. Just... don't want to. They've found other ways to build connections. Less peer pressure than previous generations. Drinking isn't essential to socializing anymore.

20% cite concern about addiction. They've watched parents or friends struggle and decided the risk isn't worth it. Some grew up in recovery communities. Some just paid attention.

Gallup checked whether people were substituting marijuana for alcohol. They weren't. The decline in drinking isn't being offset by increases in other substances. People are just consuming less mood-altering substances generally.

My parents' generation drank because that's what adults did. Parties meant drinks. Dinners meant wine. Celebrations meant champagne. The rituals were social mortar. You didn't ask if someone wanted a drink. You asked what they were drinking. Choosing not to required explanation.

That consensus is fracturing. Gallup's line drops year by year. 62, 58, 54. Three beats of the same story, which hasn't happened in their nearly century of tracking.

Among 18-34 year olds, exactly half drink. Their parents at the same age were over 70%. Women down eleven points since 2023, men down five. White adults dropped eleven, people of color held at 50.

I walked into a craft beer bar in Portland last month, middle of the afternoon. The place was quiet. Rows of taps stretched along the back wall, each one labeled with elaborate names and ABV percentages. The bartender was dusting bottles. The premium whiskeys on the top shelf that used to move fast. Now they just collect dust between the occasional order. Condensation beaded on a row of pint glasses nobody had touched yet. The music was too loud for how empty it felt.

He asked what I wanted. I looked at the tap list. Twenty beers. At the very end, one line: "Athletic Brewing - Run Wild IPA (NA)."

I ordered it.

Athletic Brewing's marketing chief said they're not focused on the sober community. They're focused on "you play it your way." They sample over a million non-alcoholic beers a year at marathons and Spartan Races. Not recovery meetings. Finish lines. People who just chose to do something hard and want to feel good after.

The shift isn't sobriety as identity. It's choice as option. Some nights yes, some nights no, some people never, some people sometimes. The binary is dissolving.

Maybe this isn't new. Every generation abandons something the previous one thought was permanent. Smoking used to be what you did at dinner parties. Then it wasn't. Cable felt essential until it didn't. Malls were where teenagers gathered until they found other places. The specifics change but the pattern holds—what feels like social bedrock to one generation becomes optional to the next.

The Language Problem with “Mocktails” and Zero-Proof Branding

Ghia sells a non-alcoholic aperitif. During the pandemic they went online-first by necessity. Couldn't do bar placements or tastings. Had to make the bottle itself do the work. The founder said they wanted it to be "a jewel on a bar cart." The aesthetic matters because the category fights decades of bad language.

"Mocktail" tests terribly in every survey. Sounds childish. Devaluing. Like you're pretending to have the real thing but obviously aren't. "Virgin drink" might be worse. It medicalizes or sexualizes depending on context, neither helpful. "Non-alcoholic" defines the product by absence. What it isn't. What's missing.

The brands that work have moved past this. "Spirit-free." "Zero-proof." Or just describing what it actually is: botanical, citrus-forward, whatever. Defining by presence rather than absence.

Most bars haven't figured this out yet. The menu section labeled "For Our Non-Drinking Friends" with one option that tastes like juice. The Instagram caption treating a mocktail post like a PSA for designated drivers. The happy hour email promoting "Dry January Survival Kits" as if not drinking requires emergency supplies.

Athletic Brewing ran a campaign called "Athletic January." The tagline: "There's nothing dry about it." They reframed the entire month from deprivation to vitality. What you're gaining rather than giving up. The campaign worked because it started from a different premise: the people not drinking might not be suffering.

Seedlip, one of the first distilled non-alcoholic spirits, talks about the "first great sip" as the conversion moment. Their pop-up experiences create environments specifically designed to deliver that moment. Bright spaces. Warm lighting. Trained bartenders who understand the products. Settings that communicate: this is not compromise.

They're not marketing to non-drinkers as a category. They're marketing to moderators. People who drink sometimes. People who aren't drinking tonight. People who want the ritual without the effects. People who like the taste but not how they feel after.

Most bar marketing still treats drinkers and non-drinkers as separate audiences living separate lives. Hasn't noticed they're often the same person on different nights.

A friend of mine that shares my observational slant was at a bar in Brooklyn last month and watched someone order a cocktail, drink half, then switch to seltzer for the rest of the night. Not because they were cutting themselves off. Because they were done. The bartender looked confused when they ordered the seltzer, like they'd broken some unspoken rule about commitment. The drink menu had twelve craft cocktails. One mocktail. The seltzer came in a plastic cup.

What’s Working in Non-Alcoholic Menu and Marketing Strategy

A purchasing company called Entegra tracked sales data and found non-alcoholic beverage sales jumped 30% last year. But the more interesting number: venues doing about $2 million annually saw average revenue increase of $95,000 just from expanding their non-alcoholic menu. Not from eliminating alcohol. From adding real options.

The math is straightforward if you think about it. You already have glassware, garnishes, trained bartenders. A well-made spirit-free cocktail costs roughly the same to produce as an alcoholic one. Premium ingredients, labor, presentation. The margins can match or beat alcohol because you're not paying liquor taxes or wrestling with the regulatory tangle.

Venues seeing results treat their non-alcoholic program like it matters. Craft drinks with real ingredients. Proper glassware. Menu placement that integrates rather than segregates. Staff who can actually recommend drinks based on flavor instead of mumbling about Coke products.

Ghia built an ecosystem around their aperitif. Custom glassware. Recipe cards. A line of spritzes developed from customer creations. They're selling experience, not bottle. Price reflects it. $30-40. People push back initially, but the company learned to explain: you're paying for ingredients and craft, not alcohol taxes and distributor markups.

Athletic Brewing sponsors events where their customers already gather. Marathons. Obstacle courses. Outdoor festivals. They let people taste the product in contexts where not drinking is already normal. The problem is getting them to try it. The stigma around non-alcoholic beer runs deep. Letting people discover it's good works better than telling them.

Seedlip's marketing lead said the experiential piece is critical "for our category more than any other category." For a new thing, tasting is believing. You can't convince people non-alcoholic spirits taste good through ads. They have to experience it in a setting designed to deliver that first good moment.

The pattern: these brands aren't apologizing. They're not positioning their products as lesser alternatives for people who can't handle the real thing. They're building experiences around the premise that not drinking can be sophisticated, intentional, desirable. A choice rather than a limitation.

Maybe that's the real inversion. Bars used to sell escape. Now they're selling control. Different century, same thirst.

Digital Marketing and Social Trends for Zero-Proof Brands

Instagram aesthetics matter more than most bar owners realize. Ghia built a "darker, kind of moodier" visual identity specifically to separate from wellness-brand pastels. The bottle photographs beautifully. The serves look sophisticated. The brand doesn't scream healthy alternative. It suggests good taste.

Athletic Brewing expanded beyond athlete influencers to musicians, chefs, lifestyle people. The message: non-alcoholic beer isn't just for ultramarathon runners. It's for anyone who wants to stay sharp, stay social, wake up feeling fine. The influencer strategy widened who might consider trying it.

User-generated content works when you give people something worth photographing. A well-composed zero-proof cocktail in nice glassware. A branded glass they want on their shelf. An experience at a pop-up that feels worth sharing. The product has to earn the post.

Even search behavior reflects it. Type 'best mocktails in [city]' and you'll find open lanes. Less competition than their alcoholic versions, which means a bar with a thoughtful non-alcoholic program can show up without much effort.

Bars with traction treat non-alcoholic offerings like a full menu category. Dedicated website page. Good photography. Descriptions that sell the experience. Blog posts about craft or mindful drinking trends. Positions the place as current rather than reluctantly accommodating.

Events and Community Marketing for Non-Drinkers

Most bars sponsor the same events they always have. Drinking-centric gatherings where non-alcoholic options feel odd. But opportunities exist everywhere if you look sideways. Yoga studios. Climbing gyms. Cycling clubs. Morning networking. Recovery communities. Parent groups. Any gathering where alcohol isn't default and people might appreciate a sophisticated alternative.

Seedlip targets big music festivals and sporting events. Places where non-alcoholic options have typically been afterthoughts. They're not trying to convert people who want to get drunk at a concert. They're serving people who want to stay for the whole show, remember it, drive home fine.

Sans Bar in Austin is fully sober. No alcohol anywhere. The business model is still evolving but the fact it exists and expanded to multiple locations suggests real demand. Some people want the social environment without the pressure or temptation. They want to go to a bar. They don't want alcohol there.

Event approaches that work recognize that alcohol-free doesn't mean joyless. Creating spaces where not drinking is normal, unremarkable. Comedy shows. Live music. Trivia. Workshops. Community things. Events where the draw is the activity or people, not the drinks.

Common Mistakes in Bar and Restaurant Non-Alcoholic Programs

The mistakes are predictable because they stem from the same misunderstanding: treating non-drinkers as a problem instead of a market.

The token mocktail. One option. No thought given to ingredients or quality. Priced at $12 because... we can? Menu description: "For Those Who Aren't Drinking Tonight" as if it's a consolation prize for people who couldn't handle the real experience.

The defensive positioning. "We added some non-alcoholic options because people kept asking." The eye-roll is implicit. The message: we did this under duress.

The condescending language. "Sophisticated enough for adults." "Not your childhood Shirley Temple." "You won't even miss the alcohol." Every phrase reinforces that drinking alcohol is the default, superior choice.

The segregation. Non-alcoholic options on a separate page, different section, very back of menu. The visual message: these aren't real drinks.

The inconsistency. The regular cocktail menu gets updated seasonally with creative names and detailed descriptions. The non-alcoholic section hasn't changed in two years and describes drinks by what they lack. Still marking time by a rhythm nobody follows.

The denial. Some operators have decided this is temporary turbulence. The three years of decline, the $830 billion in losses, the brewery closures. All passing. Things will return to normal. This is hoping substituting for strategy.

Maybe it's easier to wait than to change. Changing requires admitting you misread your customers. Requires menu redesigns and staff retraining and explaining to regulars why you're making room for drinks they're not going to order. Waiting just requires doing nothing and believing the numbers will reverse themselves.

They won't.

How Non-Alcoholic Menus Boost Bar and Restaurant Revenue

40% of Texas restaurants reported declining alcohol sales last quarter. Alcohol's always been the high-margin category. Losing it hurts.

But venues that expanded their non-alcoholic menus saw an average revenue boost of $95,000 annually. Not from eliminating alcohol. From adding real options.

Liquor taxes vanish, but the labor doesn't. The glassware doesn't. The bartender still makes the drink. The margin survives if the drink does. Premium ingredients cost money. Botanical extracts, quality juices, specialty syrups. But so does premium liquor.

The global non-alcoholic beverage market is projected to hit $1.7 trillion by 2027. Athletic Brewing is valued around $800 million. Ghia, Seedlip, and others have raised significant funding. Money notices trends before most operators do.

More importantly, the demographic pattern is clear. Gen Z drinks less than millennials. Millennials drink less than Gen X. Gen X drinks less than boomers. Each generation drinks less than the last. This isn't a dip. It's a direction.

Places that adapt early capture growing market. Places that wait compete for shrinking one.

How Bars Can Adapt to the Zero-Proof Era

Maybe this isn't complicated. Places succeeding lead with quality. Use language that includes rather than segregates. Design menus that treat non-alcoholic options as legitimate choices. Market experiences and flavors, not the absence of something.

Athletic Brewing doesn't market to sober people. They market to people who want to perform well and feel good. The product happens to be non-alcoholic. That's a feature, not the entire identity.

Ghia doesn't market to people who can't drink. They market to people with taste who want a sophisticated aperitif experience. The non-alcoholic aspect is part of the appeal, not a limitation.

Seedlip doesn't market to designated drivers. They market to people who want interesting drinks and don't want the alcohol. The motivation doesn't matter. The experience does.

The language moved from absence to presence. From "no alcohol" to "botanical" or just describing what it tastes like. Visual identity went from sterile wellness to something closer to actual sophistication. Darker labels. Glass that looks good on a shelf instead of a juice cleanse. The marketing stopped apologizing and started behaving like an invitation.

None of this requires eliminating alcohol. Places with strong alcohol programs are building legitimate non-alcoholic ones alongside. They recognize these aren't competing audiences. Often the same people on different nights, in different moods, at different points in their lives.

On the menu it reads less like "we also have options for people who don't drink" and more like "we have a range of sophisticated beverages, some with alcohol and some without."

Next Steps for Restaurants and Brands in a Post-Alcohol Culture

Start with the menu. Not the words around it. The actual drinks. Real ingredients. Proper training. Thoughtful pricing. Drinks worth ordering again.

Fix the language. Remove "mocktail." Remove apologetic framing. Integrate non-alcoholic options throughout rather than segregating. Write descriptions that sell the experience.

Build the digital presence. Dedicated menu page. Quality photos. Content that helps with search. Social media that treats non-alcoholic offerings as legitimate menu items.

Create the experiences. Events that aren't drinking-centric. Partnerships with communities where your offerings align. Pop-ups that let people try your non-alcoholic program in new contexts.

Somewhere tonight a bartender pours a round of Athletic IPAs, the hiss of carbonation the same sound the old bottles used to make. The ritual survived.

Only the chemistry changed.