Plate Lunch Collective

Retrieval Layer Intelligence Report

Minimalist white interior of a multi-level modern library with geometric stairs and bookshelves, symbolizing data architecture and the scale of the AI retrieval layer.
Retrieval Layer Intelligence: Decoding the shift from search discovery to autonomous agentic action. | Img: Max Langelott • Unsplash

Monthly benchmarks and strategic guidance for navigating the shift from Search Engines to Action Engines.

Updated Jan 21, 2026

🚨
Why we Consolidated our Intelligence In 2025, the "AI Browser" and "AI Referral Traffic" were emerging as separate trends. By 2026, they have converged into a single ecosystem: The Retrieval Layer.

We have merged these reports to provide a unified view of how Interfaces (the browsers where users ask) impact Outcomes (the referral traffic your site receives). This permanent hub is updated monthly with proprietary data and strategic guidance for modern SEO/GEO.


The Market Split: Volume vs. Intent

The retrieval layer has moved beyond a simple popularity contest. A direct pull from our Similarweb integrationconfirms a Tier 1 Statistical Delta:

  • Google Gemini Surges: Now capturing 21.5% of the referral basket, a +18% increase against its 12-month average.
  • ChatGPT Erosion: While still the volume leader at 64.5%, its near-monopoly is fading into a two-player race for scale.
  • The Counter-Narrative: Perplexity holds the lowest bounce rate in the cohort (28.2%), signaling a stickier, higher-intent user base compared to ChatGPT’s high-volume, single-query traffic.

The Infrastructure Shift: From "Search" to "Action"

This data is critical as the market pivots toward agentic action. The emergence of Google’s Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) is a definitive Tier 2 Infrastructure signal:

  • Bypassing the Click: UCP allows agents like Gemini to bypass traditional website front-ends to execute purchases via a standardized API layer.
  • Transactional Authority: The game is shifting from a battle for "clicks" to a battle for "transactional authority".
  • Agent-Ready Brands: While agentic browsers haven't materialized as standalone traffic sources yet, the plumbing is being built to favor brands that are "agent-ready" for direct commercial outcomes.

The Retrieval Layer Dashboard

The following data is sourced directly from our Similarweb integration for the period of December 23, 2025 - January 22, 2026. All data points have a high confidence interval based on Similarweb's direct measurement and estimation models.

Agentic Ecosystem Status (Jan 2026)

🟢 TIER 1 INFRASTRUCTURE

ChatGPT

Monthly Visits
5.5B
Bounce Rate
35.1%
Traffic Channel
Direct (80%)
Conversion vs. Volume: High volume suggests broad, top-of-funnel use. The relatively high bounce rate indicates many users leave after a single query.
🟡 TIER 2 INFRASTRUCTURE

Google Gemini

Monthly Visits
1.7B
Bounce Rate
42.5%
Traffic Channel
Direct (65%)
High bounce rate points to its use as a quick answer engine, often as a feature within the broader Google ecosystem rather than a destination.
🟢 TIER 1 INFRASTRUCTURE

Perplexity AI

Monthly Visits
170M
Bounce Rate
28.2%
Traffic Channel
Direct (75%)
Conversion vs. Volume: The significantly lower bounce rate signals a high-intent audience engaged in deeper research, making its traffic more valuable per visit.
🟢 TIER 1 INFRASTRUCTURE

Anthropic (Claude)

Monthly Visits
200M
Bounce Rate
39.0%
Traffic Channel
Direct (85%)
Primarily a destination for specific tasks; not a major referral channel in the consumer web ecosystem.
🟡 TIER 2 INFRASTRUCTURE

Bing (Copilot)

Monthly Visits
1.3B
Bounce Rate
31.0%
Traffic Channel
Search (90%+)
Functions almost exclusively as a feature of Bing Search, not a standalone AI destination.

Referral Metrics (Jan 2026)

🟢 TIER 1: STATISTICAL DELTA

ChatGPT

Current Share
64.5%
12-Month Trend
-15.5%
Dominant share of AI referral basket despite 12-month decline. Statistical significance indicates major market shift.
🟢 TIER 1: STATISTICAL DELTA

Google Gemini

Current Share
21.5%
12-Month Trend
+18.0%
Significant 12-month growth capturing share from ChatGPT. Statistical significance indicates structural market change.
⚖️ MARKET EQUILIBRIUM PERSISTS

Perplexity AI

Current Share
2.0%
12-Month Trend
+1.5%
Modest growth within statistical noise. Changes not significant enough to indicate structural market shift.
⚖️ MARKET EQUILIBRIUM PERSISTS

Anthropic (Claude)

Current Share
2.0%
12-Month Trend
+1.0%
Stable position within statistical noise. Changes not significant enough to indicate structural market shift.
⚖️ MARKET EQUILIBRIUM PERSISTS

Bing (Copilot)

Current Share
1.1%
12-Month Trend
-2.0%
Minimal share with slight decline within statistical noise. Changes not significant enough to indicate structural market shift.

PLC Optimization Guidance


AEO: Adopt a Bifurcated Strategy. 

The data mandates a two-pronged approach. Optimize for broad, informational queries on ChatGPT/Gemini to capture top-of-funnel awareness. Simultaneously, target long-tail, high-intent keywords for Perplexity, where the user quality and lower bounce rate indicate a higher probability of conversion.

GEO: Prioritize API-First Commerce. 

Google's UCP is a clear signal that Agentic Readiness is the next competitive frontier. We must advise e-commerce clients to move beyond front-end website optimization and invest in a robust, API-first architecture for their product catalogs and checkout processes. The goal is to ensure their products are not just discoverable but directly transactable by an AI agent, bypassing the traditional site visit entirely.

Modern SEO: Architect for "Agentic Ingestion." 

High-value users are congregating on research-heavy platforms like Perplexity. Our Modern SEO approach focuses on perfectly structured, factual data (Schema, clean product feeds, and technical documentation). This ensures your brand is flawlessly represented and trusted by the models that the most valuable AI-driven audiences use.