Social Media Forecast: Fall 2025
This summer a lot of people were trying to predict things. More important things. Things that make summers everywhere special. Like, would Uncle break his hot kalbi eating record at this summer's family reunion BBQ. Would your cousin make the big bomb splash at Walls again this summer and would Auntie let you sneak a sip of her Heineken at the beach.
The thing about predictions is they're really about hope and preparation wrapped up in the illusion of control. We track patterns because we want to be ready for what's coming, whether it's Uncle's competitive eating streak or the latest shift in how people connect online.
Back in June, I made eight specific predictions about what would happen to social media over the summer of 2025. Now that we're heading into fall, it's worth checking the scorecard. Not just because accountability matters, but because understanding what I got right and wrong shapes how we should think about what's coming next.
What Held Up
Three predictions proved accurate:
- TikTok's dominance in music discovery (that 84% of Billboard hits originating on the platform turned out to be precisely correct).
- Gen Alpha's surprising preference for in-person experiences over digital-only options (confirmed by research showing 66% would pay more for real-world experiences).
- The explosive growth in community engagement platforms (which grew 18.3% year-over-year, reaching $4.3 billion in market value).
Three more were directionally right but imprecise.
- Phoenix did experience record-breaking heat that drove community problem-solving content, though my claim of "multiple 118-degree days" overstated the specifics. There were two such days, not several.
- Climate-conscious content did surge in response to extreme weather events, but the specific claim about communities sharing "survival strategies and local solutions" couldn't be verified with platform data, even though the record heat that supposedly drove this content was confirmed.
- Social media fatigue among younger users proved real (81% of Gen Z wish they could disconnect more easily), even if I couldn't verify the specific research I cited.
What I Completely Missed
The bigger story is what I didn't see coming. While I was focused on cultural trends around AI and authenticity, I missed fundamental shifts in platform mechanics that dominated the summer:
Social search replaced Google for discovery.
Nearly half of Gen Z now uses TikTok and Instagram as their primary search engines. This wasn't just a gradual shift. It became a dominant behavior pattern that requires entirely different content strategies.
Long-form content made a surprise comeback.
Instead of everything getting shorter, creators began moving beyond 15-30 second clips toward more substantial content that builds genuine connections. TikTok's "FaceTime era" of casual, conversational content emerged as a direct response to audiences craving deeper engagement.
Platform selectivity accelerated faster than expected.
Creators and brands didn't just become more intentional about their social media use. They actively began abandoning the "be everywhere" approach in favor of building deeper communities on fewer platforms.
What Became Clear
The pattern is clear: I correctly identified cultural and behavioral trends (how people feel about technology and connection) but underestimated the pace of platform evolution (how people actually use these tools). Cultural behaviors change gradually and predictably. Platform mechanics can shift almost overnight.
That distinction matters for what's coming this fall. The five shifts I'm tracking combine both types of change. Some rooted in slower cultural movements, others driven by the rapid evolution of how we discover and consume content.
Drawing from summer's confirmed trends and emerging platform signals, five key shifts are likely to shape social media in Fall 2025:
1. The Great Unbundling: From Platforms to Communities
Platform Usage: Brands and creators will accelerate their move away from a platform-centric strategy ("be everywhere") to a community-centric one. This is a direct response to the confirmed trends of digital fatigue and the significant (18.3% YoY) growth in community engagement platforms.
Strategy: Expect to see a "hub-and-spoke" model become best practice. The "hub" will be an owned or niche platform (e.g., a Discord server, a Substack, or a dedicated community app) where deep engagement with loyal followers occurs. The "spokes" will be major platforms like TikTok and Instagram, used primarily for top-of-funnel discovery and to drive traffic to the community hub. This addresses the growing trend of creators seeking to "own" their audience and monetize directly through gated content.
2. The "Useful Internet" Renaissance
Audience Sentiment: The verified record-breaking heat in Phoenix, combined with the article's (partially supported) claim about communities sharing survival strategies, points to a larger shift in audience sentiment. Users are increasingly looking for practical, real-world value from their feeds, moving beyond passive entertainment.
Content Formats: Content will pivot towards utility. This includes actionable advice for navigating real-world challenges (economic, environmental), hyperlocal discovery (e.g., "best coffee shop in my neighborhood"), and community organizing. AI will serve as an amplifier here, used to create helpful visualizations or summarize complex information, but the core content will be grounded in authentic, immediate needs.
3. Content's "Mid-Form" Sweet Spot
Content Formats: The battle between short-form (under 60 seconds) and long-form (10+ minutes) will find a new equilibrium in "mid-form" content (approximately 1-3 minutes). This emerging format accommodates two key trends the original article missed: the return of long-form storytelling and TikTok's "FaceTime" era.
Strategy: This length is short enough to hold attention but long enough to build a narrative, share expertise, and foster the intimate, conversational connection audiences now crave. It is also the ideal format for the new paradigm of "social search," as it allows for enough depth to thoroughly answer a query that a user might type into TikTok's search bar.
4. AI as the "Co-Pilot," Not the "Pilot"
Audience Sentiment: The summer saw widespread experimentation with AI, but a clear preference has emerged. As the article correctly identified, AI that amplifies an authentic human experience is embraced, while purely synthetic content is increasingly met with skepticism. Research showing backlash against AI influencers (feeling "too fake") supports this.
Strategy: In the fall, successful brand and creator strategies will treat AI as a sophisticated co-pilot. It will be used to enhance production value (like the article's example of adding a sunset to a real video), generate creative ideas, or handle repetitive tasks. However, the core message, emotion, and experience will remain human-driven. The distinction between "AI-assisted" and "AI-generated" will become a critical marker of authenticity and audience trust.
5. Social Search Overtakes Traditional Search for Discovery
Platform Usage: The most significant trend missed by the article is the cementing of TikTok and Instagram as primary search engines, especially for Gen Z and Alpha. Nearly half of Gen Z already uses these platforms for search over Google.
Strategy: For Fall 2025, this is no longer an emerging trend but a fundamental strategic pillar. Brands must pivot from a "broadcasting" mindset to a "discoverability" mindset. This involves rigorous keyword optimization in captions, on-screen text, hashtags, and even spoken words within videos. Content will be created not just to be seen in a feed, but to be found days or weeks later by a user searching for a specific topic, product, or recommendation.
Fall 2025 is shaping up to be a season of recalibration. Creators and brands will be forced to rethink not just what they post, but why and where they post it. The summer's lessons are clear: cultural trends move predictably, platform mechanics shift overnight, and audiences reward authenticity over polish, utility over entertainment, and community over reach.
The question isn't whether these changes will happen. They're already happening. The question is whether you'll adapt to meet people where they are, or keep optimizing for a version of social media that no longer exists.