AI Referral Traffic Intelligence in North America

North American AI Referral Traffic Report - Weekly Market Intelligence by Plate Lunch Collective tracking consumer chatbot market share and strategic developments

11/24/2025

We believe in optimizing for the retrieval layer. But we got curious about who's actually sending the most clicks.

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Report Cadence Update:
Starting Week 46, this report shifts to a hybrid publishing model to better match market maturity. Weekly briefings cover strategic developments, product launches, and competitive moves. Monthly deep dives (published when new consumer market data becomes available) include full market share analysis with updated visualizations and platform cards. Consumer market stability has reached a point where weekly numerical updates provide diminishing value. Strategic intelligence now drives the narrative.

Our methodology draws directly from the work we do in Answer Engine Optimization (AEO), Generative Engine Optimization (GEO), and broader modern SEO services. These approaches help organizations understand traffic sources and optimize their strategies for AI platforms.

Weekly Strategic Briefing

Week Ending November 16, 2025 | Published November 17 | Next Briefing: November 24

Market data tables reflect most recent update (Week 45 - Nov 7). Full data refresh when new consumer market sources publish.

VIEW REPORT

Week 47 Strategic Briefing Summary November 24, 2025

Week 47 brought the highest concentration of major announcements since Week 41, with two industry-reshaping developments and multiple strategic moves across all major players.

🚀 Major Product Launches:

Google Gemini 3 (November 18): Google launched Gemini 3, its most advanced AI model, with improved reasoning and multimodal capabilities available across Google products. Released almost 8 months after Gemini 2.5, this represents Google's direct response to OpenAI's GPT-5.1 series. Intensifies competition at the model capability level.

OpenAI Education Push (November 19): Launched ChatGPT for Teachers, a free version built specifically for K-12 educators with secure workspace designed for school districts. Strategic vertical expansion into education market.

OpenAI Collaboration Features (November 20): ChatGPT group chats rolled out globally to Free, Go, Plus, and Pro plans. New collaboration capabilities available to all users worldwide.

🤝 Strategic Partnerships:

Anthropic-Microsoft-NVIDIA Alliance (November 18): Anthropic announced Claude AI now available on Microsoft Azure powered by NVIDIA infrastructure. Claude integrated into Microsoft 365 Copilot and available through Microsoft Foundry. Major enterprise distribution play—Claude gains access to Microsoft's massive business customer base.

Target-OpenAI Partnership (November 19): Target launching conversational shopping experience directly in ChatGPT with integration to Target app. First major retail partnership for ChatGPT shopping features, positioning OpenAI as retail platform versus Amazon's resistance to Perplexity's Comet.

🛡️ Safety & Security:

OpenAI Safety Improvements (November 23): OpenAI implemented safety tweaks to ChatGPT after reports of users experiencing reality distortion. Adjustments designed to appeal to broader audience while reducing risks (New York Times).

Anthropic AI Hacking Debate (November 19): Continued discussion of Claude Code cyberattack where 80-90% of attack executed autonomously. Prompts cybersecurity debate about "dangerous tipping point" for AI agent capabilities (Al Jazeera).

📊 Consumer Market Data:

No update for third consecutive week (Weeks 45-47 all using November 7 data). Consumer market remains stable: ChatGPT 61.0%, Microsoft Copilot 14.1%, Google Gemini 13.4%, Perplexity 6.4%, Claude 3.8%.

🎯 Week 47 Analysis:

Competitive Dynamics Shift: Week 47 marks a strategic realignment. Google responded to GPT-5.1 with Gemini 3 at the model level. Anthropic bypassed consumer competition entirely by securing Microsoft enterprise distribution. OpenAI expanded vertically into education and retail partnerships.

Enterprise Distribution Becomes Critical: The Anthropic-Microsoft partnership is the week's most significant development. Claude gaining access to Microsoft 365 Copilot users and Azure Foundry customers represents massive enterprise reach without fighting consumer market battles. Distribution through existing enterprise platforms may matter more than standalone consumer growth.

Retail Platform Wars Clarify: Target-OpenAI partnership contrasts sharply with Amazon-Perplexity lawsuit. OpenAI securing retail partners while Perplexity faces legal challenges suggests two paths: platform integration (OpenAI/Target) versus autonomous agents (Perplexity/Comet). Week 47 shows platforms preferring negotiated integrations over autonomous shopping agents.

Safety Becomes Mainstream Concern: Both OpenAI and Anthropic addressed safety issues this week—OpenAI for user wellbeing, Anthropic for cybersecurity implications. Safety no longer niche concern but central product consideration and public relations issue.

The Pattern: Consumer market stability continues (third week unchanged). Strategic competition moved to enterprise partnerships, vertical expansion, and platform integrations. Week 47 confirmed the market's evolution from consumer feature wars to enterprise distribution battles.

📊 Data Update Note

The Executive Summary below reflects the most recent comprehensive market data update (Week 45 - November 7, 2025). Consumer market share and developer tool exposure data update monthly or when new authoritative sources publish. Week 47's strategic briefing focuses on major announcements and partnerships while maintaining this baseline context. This is not an error—market data stability over multiple weeks is itself a significant finding indicating mature, entrenched user preferences.

Executive Summary

Week 45 Summary

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Extreme Consumer Market Stability:

After five weeks without fresh data, new figures confirm a remarkably stable consumer market. ChatGPT edges up to 61.0% (+0.3 pts), Microsoft Copilot 14.1% (+0.1 pts), Google Gemini 13.4% (-0.1 pts), Perplexity 6.4% (-0.2 pts), and Claude AI 3.8% (+0.2 pts). Total market change: just 0.9 percentage points over five weeks. This indicates a mature market where user preferences are deeply entrenched.

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Developer Tool Exposure Data:

Stack Overflow survey data shows ChatGPT (81.7%) and GitHub Copilot (67.9%) lead in developer tool exposure—meaning percentage of developers who have used them, not market share. Google Gemini (47.4%), Claude Code (40.8%), and Microsoft Copilot (31.3%) follow. Critical caveat: This is global data from July 2025, measures exposure not primary usage, and allows multiple selections. GitHub Copilot maintains verified enterprise dominance with 20M users and 90% of Fortune 100.

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Enterprise is the New Battleground:

OpenAI announces 1 million business customers milestone, calling itself the "fastest-growing business platform in history." Signs $38B AWS deal to diversify infrastructure beyond Microsoft. Anthropic counters with largest deployment to date: Cognizant rolling out Claude to 350,000 employees globally. Competition shifting from consumer features to massive enterprise contracts and strategic infrastructure partnerships.

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Google's Distribution Strategy:

Google integrates Gemini into Maps for AI-powered navigation, continuing its strategy of embedding AI into existing high-traffic products rather than competing for standalone chatbot market share. Leveraging ecosystem distribution to drive AI adoption through daily-use touchpoints.

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Claude's Steady Climb:

Claude AI maintains steady growth trajectory with +14% quarterly growth rate, highest among tracked platforms. Gains 0.2 points to reach 3.8% consumer market share. Positioned as strong challenger in premium quality segment despite remaining distant from top three leaders.

Market Maturity & Strategic Pivot: Week 45 reveals a consumer market that has fully matured—only 0.9 points of total movement over five weeks with ChatGPT's 61% dominance firmly established. The real action has moved to enterprise: OpenAI's 1M business customers and $38B AWS partnership, Anthropic's 350K employee Cognizant deployment, and Google embedding Gemini into Maps. Competition is no longer about winning consumer hearts with better features—it's about securing massive enterprise contracts, building infrastructure partnerships, and achieving distribution through ecosystem integration. The chatbot wars have evolved into the enterprise platform wars.

#1 MARKET LEADER

ChatGPT

61.0%

📊 +0.3 pts (5 weeks)

🏆 Extending Market Lead

Excellent Confidence (9.0/10)

#2 ENTERPRISE STABLE

Microsoft Copilot

14.1%

📊 +0.1 pts (5 weeks)

🏢 Office 365 Integration

Excellent Confidence (9.0/10)

#3 PLATFORM STABILITY

Google Gemini

13.4%

📊 -0.1 pts (5 weeks)

🗺️ Maps Integration Launch

Excellent Confidence (9.0/10)

#4 NICHE STABILITY

Perplexity

6.4%

📊 -0.2 pts (5 weeks)

🔍 AI Search Category Leader

Excellent Confidence (9.0/10)

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#5 STEADY GROWTH

Claude

3.8%

📊 +0.2 pts (5 weeks)

💼 350K Cognizant Deployment

Excellent Confidence (9.0/10)

North American Consumer Market (Week 45 - Fresh Data After 5 Weeks):

ChatGPT: 61.0% (+0.3)

Copilot: 14.1% (+0.1) Gemini

Gemini: 13.4% (-0.1)

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Perplexity: 6.4% (-0.2)

Claude: 3.8% (+0.2)

*Week 45 consumer data from First Page Sage (Nov 7, 2025). Total market change: 0.9 pts over 5 weeks. Confidence: 90.0/100. Highly stable market with entrenched user preferences.

Developer Tool Exposure (NOT Market Share)

Based on Stack Overflow Developer Survey 2025 (July 2025) measuring % of AI agent users who have used each tool. This is exposure data, not primary usage or market share. Data is global, 4+ months old, and allows multiple selections per respondent.

Critical Context: Precise developer tool market share cannot be calculated from publicly available data. We report exposure alongside verified enterprise metrics where available.

#1 WIDEST EXPOSURE